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Week 9 NFL Game Lineup, Predictions & Results [11/1-11/5]

And the results are in…it was a stellar week.

  • UP $50,400
  • 23-12 Record

Below we set the table for the upcoming week’s games.  In a single view, we can see all 26 teams that play across 5 distinct time slots, the 6 teams on Bye, and overall Divisional Standings.

We also signify different picks using colored circles.

First circle is for Line Play, and second circle is for Totals (Over/Under) Play, for each game.  White = 1 or 2* Play (No Action), Yellow = 3* Play ($1,000 in our system), Black = 4* Play ($2,500) and Blue = 5* Play ($5,000).

What you cannot see here is WHICH team and O/U direction is chosen.  For that, you’ve got to be a Premium Subscriber.

Enjoy the games!

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2018 – Week 7 Predictions & Results [10/18 -10/22]

Results after 7 Weeks are very positive, as we sit at 5-2 for the Season.  We’re up $93,700 (or 11.3% on the starting portfolio balance this season).

The first “Windfall Winning” week just took place!

 

Week 7 was fantastic!  Take a look at the details.

  • Record: 25-12 (68%)
  • Gains/Losses: $46,000
  • 5* Plays: 17-7 (71%)
  • 4* Plays: 1-3 (25%)
  • Teaser Plays: 8-2 (80%)
  • Line Plays:  8-6 (57%)
  • (Over/Under) Total Plays: 9-4 (69%)

 

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Week 7 NFL Game Lineup & Standings [10/18-10/22]

So this is a creative and fun little way that we like to set the table for the upcoming week’s games.  In a single view, we can see all 28 teams that play across 5 distinct time slots, the 4 teams on Bye, and overall Divisional Standings.

nfl-game-scheduleIn the meantime, we also signify different picks using colored circles.

First circle is for Line Play, and second circle is for Totals (Over/Under) Play, for each game.  White = 1 or 2* Play (No Action), Yellow = 3* Play ($1,000 in our system), Black = 4* Play ($2,500) and Blue = 5* Play ($5,000).

What you cannot see here is WHICH team and O/U direction is chosen.  For that, you’ve got to be a Premium Subscriber.

Enjoy the games!

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2018 – Week 6 Predictions & Results [10/11 -10/15]

Overall Results after 6 Weeks are positive, as we sit at 4-2 for the Season.  We’re up $47,700 (or 5.7% on the starting portfolio balance this season).

We have essentially had two narrow losses, and a few decent winning weeks.  So far, no “Windfall Winning” or “Blood Bath Losing” weeks yet.  This is the time of year where I feel we can start hitting some bigger gains.

Week 6 looked like a winner up until the 49ers showed up offensively for a shootout in Green Bay!

It’s never just about any one game, so no excuses.  It was a narrow losing week, while still on the plus side of 5* Grade Picks.  Teasers prove to be winning plays as well.

  • Record: 21-21-1 (50%)
  • Gains/Losses: ($2,500)
  • 5* Plays: 14-12-1 (54%)
  • 4* Plays: 4-5 (44%)
  • Teaser Plays: 8-5 (62%)
  • Line Plays:  6-8-1 (43%)
  • Total Plays: 7-8 (47%)

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What does a Diversified (NFL) Portfolio Look Like?

Some say it’s all about the bottom line results, and while I agree, how you get there matters.  Why?  Because we are looking for repeatable, winning strategies, not sporadic or one-time victories.  Case in point.  If you invest $100,000 with me, and I return to you $200,000 in 4 months, doubling your money, you would likely be quite happy.  Would you give me the money again next time there is an opportunity?  What if you learned that I took your funds and put it all, in one shot, on one game – say the Super Bowl – for the win.  Would you still give me the funds again next time around?  As an alternative, what if I told you that your winnings came through a diversified, multi-week allocation into over 600 “micro” plays, of relatively equal levels.

Here are several types of Diversification that the NFL Portfolio system employs, all of which spread and mitigate risk, while providing the opportunity for true prognostication skills to show through:

  1. 3 Different Play Types – Lines, Totals and Teasers are all consistently utilized.
  2. All Games – There are 267 games in an NFL season, and they all must be picked.  This gives us not only a huge number of investment opportunities (ie. games) but also spreads those opps over 21 weeks (17 of which, the regular season, are really meaty).
  3. Balancing Out Biases – It is proven fact that these opposite forces are equal over the long haul.  Therefore, consistent biases towards one or the other set us up for failure.  We watch our tendencies and encourage movement towards balanced picking between – Favorite/Underdog, Home/Away, and Over/Under.
  4. Inter-Week Adjustments are opportunities to rebalance the Portfolio based on different start times for the games, for which a typical week has 5 (Thursday Night Football, Sunday “early games”, Sunday “late games”, Sunday Night Football and the famed Monday Night Football).

None of these forms of diversification necessarily guarantee winning weeks.  In fact, we accept the reality that not all weeks can be winners.  It is over the long haul of a 21 week season that true skill shows its worth.  And with 7 straight seasons under our belt, this system has proven itself with a 55% Winning Percentage on 4,352 plays (2,347 – 1,903 – 102 in terms of W-L-T).  If that is not statistically significant, in this business, there is not much that is.

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2018 – Week 4 Predictions & Results [9/27-10/1]

[UPDATE – FINAL RESULTS – 10/2/18]

Well, we couldn’t go undefeated forever on a weekly basis.  Week 4 came down to the wire, and Kansas City’s 27-23 comeback Win over Denver brought that game (a 5* Graded Play in our book) to a Push – if it were a Win, we would have ended up with a Plus week.  So be it.  Here are some quick snippets and the overall Portfolio Book for Week 4 (2018).

  • 15-17-3 (47%) Overall Record
  • ($3,100) Losses
  • 7-5-3 (58%) on 5* Graded Plays
  • 4-7 (36%) on 4* Graded Plays
  • 4-5 (44%) on 3* Graded Plays
  • 5-6 (45%) on Teasers
  • 6-6 (50%) on Total Plays // Interestingly, we were 3-0 on Total Picks with low grades (1 and 2*), which is not typical

The good news is that we’re still 3-1 on the season and up $31,200 overall.  March Forth to Week 5!

[ORIGINAL PRE-GAME POST]

This week marks the Quarter point of the season, and move into a new month by the time Monday Night Football comes around on October 1st.  That was a quick first month of football, but thankfully, there is a long way to go.

With a 3-0 record in terms of overall weekly dollar amount Won/Lost, we’re feeling good going into Week 4.  It’s the first week where there are Byes, which means only 15 rather than 16 games on tap – something that we generally don’t like (less games = less winning and diversification opportunities).

Interestingly, this is the lowest proportion of 5* Graded Plays that we’ve had this season (35%), as opposed to 50%, 44% and 55% in Weeks 1-3.  So along with having one less game, it’s by far the lowest portfolio allocation at risk versus prior weeks @ $115,000 (highest was Week 1 = $175,950).

Lock of the Week is the Underdog Browns (+3) at Oakland.  I think Mayfield is going to do well, and the Browns are starting to establish an identity as a strong Defensive team that can also score some points.

Stay tuned for updates as the week progresses.  Tonight’s game – Vikings at Rams – on Thursday Night Football should be a good one!

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2018 – Week 3 Predictions & Results [9/20-9/24]

[FINAL UPDATE – RESULTS ARE IN]

Week 3 of the 2018 NFL Season is in the books. And NFL Portfolio is still undefeated.    3-0. This wasn’t a route, and came down to the last game of the week. But a Win is a Win, and we’re establishing a good rhythm as we approach the season’s Quarter Point. Results below.
> Winnings: $10,600 
> W-L Record: 22-17-0 (56%) 
> 5* Plays: 13-11 (54%) 
> 4* Plays: 5-0 (100%) 
> Line Plays: 4-10 (29%) 
> Over/Under Plays: 11-2 (85%) 
> Special Plays: 7-5 (58%) 

[UPDATE #1 – POST Thursday Night Football]

Tonight’s Game Plays:
Prediction — Browns 17-14 // Actual: Browns 21-17
Plays:
1) Browns/Jets Under-40 @ 5* (WIN +$5,000)
2) Jets +3.5 @ 3* (LOSS -$1,100)
3) Browns/Jets Under-50 in 3-Team Teaser @ 5* (WON 1 of 3 Elements; Others TBD)
4) Jets +13.5 in 3-Team Teaser @ 4* (WON 1 of 3 Elements; Others TBD)

Nice start! Go Premium to get the rest of Week 3 Picks before Sunday’s 1pm EST Kick-offs!

I’ve got 38 allocations or “Plays” for Week 3, across 16 games, that kick-off tonight with Jets at Browns on Thursday Night Football.

Some other key stats about this week’s picks, which all Premium Subscribers are receiving just about now.

  1. 56% of picks (24 of them) are 5* Graded / 12% on 4* // 21% on 3* // 7% on 2* // 5% on 1*
  2. 14 Line Plays, 13 Total Plays and 11 Special Plays (Teasers)
  3. Fairly even between Favorites (9) and Underdogs (7)
  4. Same split between Home Teams (9) and Visitors (7)
  5. Same split between Overs (9) and Unders (7)
  6. Predicting 45.7 average points per game.  Actuals for Week 2 was 46.3 and Week 1 was 47.8; games are generally higher scoring than last season, presumably due to the new rules promoting Offense and protecting Quarterbacks.

For those of you who aren’t yet on that list, I’ll throw out my Lock of the Week (disclaimer: there really are no “locks” and betting on any one game is essentially a coin toss; this system works over time, on small percentage odds and with a lot of games for ammunition).  That said, Lock of the Week is the Jaguars (-6.5) at home versus their division rival Titans.

Enjoy Week 3!

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2018 – Week 2 Predictions & Results [9/13-9/16]

[Monday 9/17 – Post MNF Update] That’s a wrap on Week 2, which was a good one.  Highlights and the full box score below.

  1. 24-15-2 (62%) Record
  2. $23,100 Winnings
  3. 9-2-0 (82%) on Teasers
  4. 10-7-2 (59%) on 5* Graded Plays
  5. 7-0-0 (100%) on 4* Plays

This brings the NFL Portfolio “system” to 2-0-0 on the season, with winnings of $23,700 overall.  Marching Forth to Week 3!

[Sunday 9/16 – 1pm Update] Here are picks for the entire week, showing results from Thursday Night.

[9/14 Update] Week 2 picks are in.  We’re 2-0 thus far, with a full slate on Sunday and Monday Night as well still coming up.

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2013 (Season #3) NFL Portfolio Results

A bit tougher sledding than Season #2, but still quite successful in the end.  It’s not about the week to week – you will constantly hear that from us – but about the overall Season, and staying true to the system with great patience, for the duration of the 17-week Regular Season.  We don’t put too much stock in Playoffs, since all teams are very good at that point, and there aren’t enough weekly games to really activate the best elements of the system, and properly diversify risk.