Posted on

Week 4 NFL Bettor’s Guide [2021]

Here we go! Week 4 picks are in, see below.  We are examining more closely our biases, having had years in this system, with a consistent winning record, in efforts to strike a greater balance in a few key areas.

      • Picking Favorites – this goes back a long way, and I am putting more pressure on myself to ‘seek out winning dogs’ each week, even where it feels risky.
      • Picking Overs – for example, our total points predicted in all 3 weeks to-date has been 60-100 points above the total actual points scored.

Third straight week making a 7* play; let’s see if we can keep the winning streak going.

Posted on

Week 7 NFL Bettor’s Guide [2020]

Week 7, here we go.  See if we can bounce back from a rough Week 6.  Picking games in the NFL, like most professional sports, is not easy, and I cannot stress enough how close to 50/50 the process is.  The ONLY chance that one has to win any money gambling on or investing in the NFL is by a methodical, long term process.  Look at Week 6 results as a reminder – a big loss, but that is just 1 out of 17 weeks over a 4 month season.  This process, the NFL Portfolio methodology, is a patient, ‘long-term’ (meaning Season Long) approach.  It has worked, not flawlessly, but productively, with positive wins, for 9 straight years, and here we are a third of the way through Season 10, and doing very well.

Enjoy the games, and don’t put all your eggs in any one basket!  There are no such things as “Locks” in sports, especially when money is on the line.  Don’t ‘gamble’ – emotionally or financially; instead use your instincts, reasoning and then take a measured, objective approach.

Posted on

Week 4 NFL Bettor’s Guide [2020]

UP $153,200 <> RECORD: 30-12-0 (71%)

Week 4 Portfolio Allocation (Predictions)

With COVID hitting home – one game moved to Week 7, and one game moved to later this week – we’re down on plays, to 41 Plays overall, 25 of which are 5*. 15 ATS (Against The Spread), 15 Total (O/U) Plays and 11 Teasers.  Lock of the Week (Packers -5 vs. Falcons).

Posted on

Week 2 NFL Bettor’s Guide [2020]

UP $50,400 <> RECORD: 23-20-3

Here we go, looking to build off of a strong 2020 start.  No fans in the stands, no matter.  The show goes on.

We’ve taken some early hits with a wildly unpredictable Thursday Night game.  35-30 Browns, who would have thought – but anything can happen in this game, as in life.  That is why we play the long game, with discipline and detachment.

Steelers are this week’s ‘Best Bet’, and there are 30 5* Plays on the Board.

Posted on

Week 12 NFL Bettor’s Guide – Picks ATS, Totals and Teasers [11/21 – 11/25/19]

RECORD: 2-0-0 // GAINS: +$6,000

Week 12 is in progress, and we had a good start on Thursday Night Football, winning on all 4 plays.  NFL betting is an up and down game.  Getting out of the gate strong in a given week helps.

Below are all Week 12 NFL Game picks, with 14 Against the Spread (ATS), 14 Totals (Over/Unders) and 10 Teaser plays, rated from 1-5 Stars.  I hope that I don’t regret this – calling on the Cowboys as our Best Bet against the very tough Patriots team and defense, in Gillette Stadium.

Some blockbuster games this week – very exciting – including Packers at 49ers and Ravens at Rams.  We start to get a sense of who is for real at this point forward; as the great Bill Parcells used to say, “talk to me after Thanksgiving”.

Posted on

Week 11 NFL Bettor’s Guide – Picks ATS, Totals and Teasers [11/14 – 11/18/19]

nfl-game-schedule

RECORD: 22-17-0 // GAINS: +$3,000

Week 11 was (barely) a winner – so I’ll call it a draw.  Always good to have a positive record though, +5 in terms of Wins/Losses.

Looking to stay on the positive side of the ledger; and the week has already started off well, with 4 winning hits with the Browns-Steelers melee (literally)!

Below are all Week 11 NFL Game picks, with 14 Against the Spread (ATS), 14 Totals (Over/Unders) and 10 Teaser plays, rated from 1-5 Stars.  Generally, we’re at 3-5 Stars for all possible plays this season, opting to play rather than defer most of the time, as 1-2 Star picks do not get any wagering allocation.

Posted on

More People are Playing – Great, But Who is Actually Winning?

More people are gambling on Sports in America, with NFL Football easily being the most popular bet, than ever before, spurred on by recent legalization of gambling in several states.  New Jersey just became the new capital of Sports betting in the United States, overtaking Las Vegas – see this NY Times article for more details on that.  The state has been gunning for this title a long time, and finally having overcome regulatory obstacles, sports gambling has become legal in the State as of 2018.  That didn’t take very long, did it?  As other major market states watch closely, the revenue opportunities are there for governments – the ultimate bookies or gangsters, whichever term you prefer – to take their cuts.  And we all know how well the bookies are making out.  Lastly, don’t forget that the NFL and its monstrous media partners all have clear cut stake in various gaming operations and multi-billion dollar advertisers like Draft Kings who flood every possible media channel to reach new users on a daily basis.

So who is paying the bill for all of this advertising, tax revenue and gaming profits?  Well, it’s obviously you…and all of the other ‘players’ who are paying to play, for the chance to win, for entertainment, we might say to justify this guilty pleasure of a habit at best, and financial wellness threatening addiction at worst.

How many people out there do you think are able to ‘beat the system’ and win, over the long haul – not just “having a great week” or possibly a good winning season.  I don’t know the real number, but I’m sure that the bookies do – and it’s almost certainly less than 5% “Winners”.  There are Pros of course – I’m one of them – who know how to play, systematically, and win consistently.  However, in spite of a lot of promises and hype, none have been able to organize and train the masses well enough to increase the collective winning percentage of casual gamblers.  That is because it takes great discipline to play; either that, or turn your funds over to someone else that can do it better – a kind of gambling hedge fund strategy, something that we are working on at NFL Portfolio.  Because I personally experience and understand the thrill that goes along with making your own picks, we also offer systems and tools that allow you to take our research and technology back ‘home’, to create and hone your own – hopefully not haphazard – process for making picks.

Bottom line is this.  I don’t want you to Pay to Play any longer; I want you to Play to Win.  The House will survive, governments will still get their cut, and the NFL will continue to thrive as a mega-billion dollar industry.  In the meantime, we can increase our odds and winning percentages by some fraction that levels the playing field a bit.

When you’re ready to take it to the next level and start (seriously) Playing to Win, start by putting NFL Portfolio to work for you.

Posted on

What does a Diversified (NFL) Portfolio Look Like?

Some say it’s all about the bottom line results, and while I agree, how you get there matters.  Why?  Because we are looking for repeatable, winning strategies, not sporadic or one-time victories.  Case in point.  If you invest $100,000 with me, and I return to you $200,000 in 4 months, doubling your money, you would likely be quite happy.  Would you give me the money again next time there is an opportunity?  What if you learned that I took your funds and put it all, in one shot, on one game – say the Super Bowl – for the win.  Would you still give me the funds again next time around?  As an alternative, what if I told you that your winnings came through a diversified, multi-week allocation into over 600 “micro” plays, of relatively equal levels.

Here are several types of Diversification that the NFL Portfolio system employs, all of which spread and mitigate risk, while providing the opportunity for true prognostication skills to show through:

  1. 3 Different Play Types – Lines, Totals and Teasers are all consistently utilized.
  2. All Games – There are 267 games in an NFL season, and they all must be picked.  This gives us not only a huge number of investment opportunities (ie. games) but also spreads those opps over 21 weeks (17 of which, the regular season, are really meaty).
  3. Balancing Out Biases – It is proven fact that these opposite forces are equal over the long haul.  Therefore, consistent biases towards one or the other set us up for failure.  We watch our tendencies and encourage movement towards balanced picking between – Favorite/Underdog, Home/Away, and Over/Under.
  4. Inter-Week Adjustments are opportunities to rebalance the Portfolio based on different start times for the games, for which a typical week has 5 (Thursday Night Football, Sunday “early games”, Sunday “late games”, Sunday Night Football and the famed Monday Night Football).

None of these forms of diversification necessarily guarantee winning weeks.  In fact, we accept the reality that not all weeks can be winners.  It is over the long haul of a 21 week season that true skill shows its worth.  And with 7 straight seasons under our belt, this system has proven itself with a 55% Winning Percentage on 4,352 plays (2,347 – 1,903 – 102 in terms of W-L-T).  If that is not statistically significant, in this business, there is not much that is.