There is a reason why the gaming industry makes so much money. The odds are in their favor, and they get a cut (or vig) on all bets. Their job is to mitigate their own risk. Why shouldn’t the investors or players employ similar strategies? That’s what smart investors and investment management companies do. And that is what the NFL Portfolio methodology does. Pioneered by long-time prognosticator and NFL aficionado, Arman Rousta, this meticulous system controls for emotional swings, over-allocation to any one play, and other types of biases that generally send “gamblers” down a dangerous hole, and corrupt even the most methodical of professional bettors.
Here are some snippets of how it works and what makes the methodology unique.
- 267 Games in an NFL season. Each one has to be picked, down to the detail of score prediction.
- With each score predicted, lines are entered using the latest lines from this website: http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/
- We check the deltas between actual lines and predicted outcomes, and based on that and other subjective “Feel Factors”, rank each pick from 1-5 stars, with 5 being the “Best Bets” and 1 being of Low Confidence.
- Based on the 1-5 star picks, Teaser elements are paired up, with attempts to group the elements by level of confidence (ie. use three 5-star picks in a 3-Team Tease).
- 1 and 2-star picks don’t get any budgetary allocation. 3-star picks receive an X allocation (0.5% of portfolio balance OR a fixed number throughout the season – we have used $500 and then bumped it up to $1,000); 4-star picks receive a 2X allocation (1.0% of portfolio OR a fixed number – we have used $1,000 and bumped it to $2,000); 5-star picks receive a 5X allocation (2.5% of portfolio balance OR a fixed number – we have used $2,500 – $5,000).
- The top “Best Bet” for the week is selected on the Straight Line spreads, usually based on largest delta from lines vs. predicted outcomes, and aided by Feel Factors.
- During the season, we track our own (potential) biases on Home Teams, Overs, Favorites, Divisional Games and other factors, in order to keep the system as honest and objective as possible. Most gamblers bias towards favorites and overs, whereas it is a proven fact that favorites don’t cover more than 50% of the time over any statistically significant long-haul.
This is just a taste. There is a lot more behind the curtain, which will slowly be unveiled to the General Public via this website, and even more so for Premium Subscribers, via email and password-protected sections.
