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2018 – Week 6 Predictions & Results [10/11 -10/15]

Overall Results after 6 Weeks are positive, as we sit at 4-2 for the Season.  We’re up $47,700 (or 5.7% on the starting portfolio balance this season).

We have essentially had two narrow losses, and a few decent winning weeks.  So far, no “Windfall Winning” or “Blood Bath Losing” weeks yet.  This is the time of year where I feel we can start hitting some bigger gains.

Week 6 looked like a winner up until the 49ers showed up offensively for a shootout in Green Bay!

It’s never just about any one game, so no excuses.  It was a narrow losing week, while still on the plus side of 5* Grade Picks.  Teasers prove to be winning plays as well.

  • Record: 21-21-1 (50%)
  • Gains/Losses: ($2,500)
  • 5* Plays: 14-12-1 (54%)
  • 4* Plays: 4-5 (44%)
  • Teaser Plays: 8-5 (62%)
  • Line Plays:  6-8-1 (43%)
  • Total Plays: 7-8 (47%)

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2018 – Week 4 Predictions & Results [9/27-10/1]

[UPDATE – FINAL RESULTS – 10/2/18]

Well, we couldn’t go undefeated forever on a weekly basis.  Week 4 came down to the wire, and Kansas City’s 27-23 comeback Win over Denver brought that game (a 5* Graded Play in our book) to a Push – if it were a Win, we would have ended up with a Plus week.  So be it.  Here are some quick snippets and the overall Portfolio Book for Week 4 (2018).

  • 15-17-3 (47%) Overall Record
  • ($3,100) Losses
  • 7-5-3 (58%) on 5* Graded Plays
  • 4-7 (36%) on 4* Graded Plays
  • 4-5 (44%) on 3* Graded Plays
  • 5-6 (45%) on Teasers
  • 6-6 (50%) on Total Plays // Interestingly, we were 3-0 on Total Picks with low grades (1 and 2*), which is not typical

The good news is that we’re still 3-1 on the season and up $31,200 overall.  March Forth to Week 5!

[ORIGINAL PRE-GAME POST]

This week marks the Quarter point of the season, and move into a new month by the time Monday Night Football comes around on October 1st.  That was a quick first month of football, but thankfully, there is a long way to go.

With a 3-0 record in terms of overall weekly dollar amount Won/Lost, we’re feeling good going into Week 4.  It’s the first week where there are Byes, which means only 15 rather than 16 games on tap – something that we generally don’t like (less games = less winning and diversification opportunities).

Interestingly, this is the lowest proportion of 5* Graded Plays that we’ve had this season (35%), as opposed to 50%, 44% and 55% in Weeks 1-3.  So along with having one less game, it’s by far the lowest portfolio allocation at risk versus prior weeks @ $115,000 (highest was Week 1 = $175,950).

Lock of the Week is the Underdog Browns (+3) at Oakland.  I think Mayfield is going to do well, and the Browns are starting to establish an identity as a strong Defensive team that can also score some points.

Stay tuned for updates as the week progresses.  Tonight’s game – Vikings at Rams – on Thursday Night Football should be a good one!

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2018 – Week 3 Predictions & Results [9/20-9/24]

[FINAL UPDATE – RESULTS ARE IN]

Week 3 of the 2018 NFL Season is in the books. And NFL Portfolio is still undefeated.    3-0. This wasn’t a route, and came down to the last game of the week. But a Win is a Win, and we’re establishing a good rhythm as we approach the season’s Quarter Point. Results below.
> Winnings: $10,600 
> W-L Record: 22-17-0 (56%) 
> 5* Plays: 13-11 (54%) 
> 4* Plays: 5-0 (100%) 
> Line Plays: 4-10 (29%) 
> Over/Under Plays: 11-2 (85%) 
> Special Plays: 7-5 (58%) 

[UPDATE #1 – POST Thursday Night Football]

Tonight’s Game Plays:
Prediction — Browns 17-14 // Actual: Browns 21-17
Plays:
1) Browns/Jets Under-40 @ 5* (WIN +$5,000)
2) Jets +3.5 @ 3* (LOSS -$1,100)
3) Browns/Jets Under-50 in 3-Team Teaser @ 5* (WON 1 of 3 Elements; Others TBD)
4) Jets +13.5 in 3-Team Teaser @ 4* (WON 1 of 3 Elements; Others TBD)

Nice start! Go Premium to get the rest of Week 3 Picks before Sunday’s 1pm EST Kick-offs!

I’ve got 38 allocations or “Plays” for Week 3, across 16 games, that kick-off tonight with Jets at Browns on Thursday Night Football.

Some other key stats about this week’s picks, which all Premium Subscribers are receiving just about now.

  1. 56% of picks (24 of them) are 5* Graded / 12% on 4* // 21% on 3* // 7% on 2* // 5% on 1*
  2. 14 Line Plays, 13 Total Plays and 11 Special Plays (Teasers)
  3. Fairly even between Favorites (9) and Underdogs (7)
  4. Same split between Home Teams (9) and Visitors (7)
  5. Same split between Overs (9) and Unders (7)
  6. Predicting 45.7 average points per game.  Actuals for Week 2 was 46.3 and Week 1 was 47.8; games are generally higher scoring than last season, presumably due to the new rules promoting Offense and protecting Quarterbacks.

For those of you who aren’t yet on that list, I’ll throw out my Lock of the Week (disclaimer: there really are no “locks” and betting on any one game is essentially a coin toss; this system works over time, on small percentage odds and with a lot of games for ammunition).  That said, Lock of the Week is the Jaguars (-6.5) at home versus their division rival Titans.

Enjoy Week 3!

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2018 – Week 2 Predictions & Results [9/13-9/16]

[Monday 9/17 – Post MNF Update] That’s a wrap on Week 2, which was a good one.  Highlights and the full box score below.

  1. 24-15-2 (62%) Record
  2. $23,100 Winnings
  3. 9-2-0 (82%) on Teasers
  4. 10-7-2 (59%) on 5* Graded Plays
  5. 7-0-0 (100%) on 4* Plays

This brings the NFL Portfolio “system” to 2-0-0 on the season, with winnings of $23,700 overall.  Marching Forth to Week 3!

[Sunday 9/16 – 1pm Update] Here are picks for the entire week, showing results from Thursday Night.

[9/14 Update] Week 2 picks are in.  We’re 2-0 thus far, with a full slate on Sunday and Monday Night as well still coming up.

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2018 NFL Season: Week 1 [9/6 – 9/10/18]

NFL’s Week 1 (2018) is in the books, as is NFL Portfolio’s Week 1 allocation. And the result…a very modest “Winner”.  Details below:

  • Winnings: $600
  • Funds Allocated: $175,950
  • # of Positions: 46
  • W-L Record: 21-23-2
  • 5* Grade Record: 12-9-2
  • Lines Record: 9-6-1
  • Totals Record: 4-11-1
  • Special Plays Record: 8-6-0 [Teasers]
  • Lock of the Week: (W) Rams (PK) over RAIDERS [1-0-0]
  • Best Call of the Week: I predicted 21-20 BROWNS over Steelers, and it turned out to be a 21-21 Tie.  5* Wins on both BROWNS (+7) and the Under (47.5).

It’s always good to get out of a “not so great” week generally unscathed, while also learning the personalities of teams in this new season. It’s a long season.  Detailed results are shared below. On to Week 2!

WEEK 1 KICK-OFF MESSAGE

It started on Thursday – 9/6/18.  Season 8 for NFL Portfolio, and the first one that we’re going Public with.  So far, we’ve had 7 successful seasons in a row (7-0), with a hypothetical portfolio starting at $100,000 that has grown to nearly $600,000 over this stretch.

Another five month, 267 game season kicks off with a clash between the past two NFC Champions – Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles.

I’m posting Week 1’s picks as a Free Offer and example, for all to see how the system works.  After this, weekly NFL Portfolio allocations will only be shared (in advance of games) with Premium Subscribers; and with the General Public right after 1pm Sunday kick-offs.  This allows us to be fully, publicly verified – and we will use the blockchain to help with verification of predictions and results.  Enjoy!

NFL PORTFOLIO ALLOCATIONS – WEEK 1

2018-nfl-season-week-1-predictions
2018 NFL Season, Week 1 Picks

PREDICTED VS. ACTUAL SCORES [HOME TEAM IN CAPS]

  • EAGLES 24, Falcons 20 [Actual: 18-12, EAGLES]
  • BROWNS 21, Steelers 20 [Actual: 21-21, OT/Tie]
  • Bengals 20, COLTS 17 [Actual: 34-23, Bengals]
  • Titans 24, Dolphins 17 [Actual: 27-20, DOLPHINS]
  • VIKINGS 27, 49ers 20 [Actual: 24-16, VIKINGS]
  • Texans 31, PATRIOTS 27 [Actual: 27-20, PATRIOTS]
  • SAINTS 31, Buccaneers 17 [Actual: 48-40, Buccaneers]
  • Jaguars 27, GIANTS 20 [Actual: 20-15, Jaguars]
  • RAVENS 20, Bills 17 [Actual: 47-3, RAVENS]
  • CHARGERS 24, Chiefs 21 [Actual: 38-28, Chiefs]
  • BRONCOS 23, Seahawks 17 [Actual: 27-24, BRONCOS]
  • Redskins 24, CARDINALS 21 [Actual: 24-6, Redskins]
  • Cowboys 17, PANTHERS 16 [Actual: 16-8, PANTHERS]
  • PACKERS 26, Bears 17 [Actual: 24-23, PACKERS]
  • LIONS 21, Jets 17 [Actual: 48-17, Jets]
  • Rams 31, RAIDERS 21 [Actual: 33-13, Rams]

INTER-WEEK 1 ADJUSTMENTS

  • Adding 2-Team Teaser // Packers E, Rams +7 @ 5* PICK [Due to Saints losing in earlier Teaser]
  • Adding 3-Team Teaser // Chargers U-58, Jets +16.5, Bronocos +8.5 [Due to Bills and Saints Totals not covering in earlier Teasers]
  • Adding 3-Team Teaser // Jets +16.5, Packers +3, Raiders O-39.5 [Due to Chargers Totals not covering in earlier Teasers]

RESULTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT (9/9/18)