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2018 – Week 4 Predictions & Results [9/27-10/1]

[UPDATE – FINAL RESULTS – 10/2/18]

Well, we couldn’t go undefeated forever on a weekly basis.  Week 4 came down to the wire, and Kansas City’s 27-23 comeback Win over Denver brought that game (a 5* Graded Play in our book) to a Push – if it were a Win, we would have ended up with a Plus week.  So be it.  Here are some quick snippets and the overall Portfolio Book for Week 4 (2018).

  • 15-17-3 (47%) Overall Record
  • ($3,100) Losses
  • 7-5-3 (58%) on 5* Graded Plays
  • 4-7 (36%) on 4* Graded Plays
  • 4-5 (44%) on 3* Graded Plays
  • 5-6 (45%) on Teasers
  • 6-6 (50%) on Total Plays // Interestingly, we were 3-0 on Total Picks with low grades (1 and 2*), which is not typical

The good news is that we’re still 3-1 on the season and up $31,200 overall.  March Forth to Week 5!

[ORIGINAL PRE-GAME POST]

This week marks the Quarter point of the season, and move into a new month by the time Monday Night Football comes around on October 1st.  That was a quick first month of football, but thankfully, there is a long way to go.

With a 3-0 record in terms of overall weekly dollar amount Won/Lost, we’re feeling good going into Week 4.  It’s the first week where there are Byes, which means only 15 rather than 16 games on tap – something that we generally don’t like (less games = less winning and diversification opportunities).

Interestingly, this is the lowest proportion of 5* Graded Plays that we’ve had this season (35%), as opposed to 50%, 44% and 55% in Weeks 1-3.  So along with having one less game, it’s by far the lowest portfolio allocation at risk versus prior weeks @ $115,000 (highest was Week 1 = $175,950).

Lock of the Week is the Underdog Browns (+3) at Oakland.  I think Mayfield is going to do well, and the Browns are starting to establish an identity as a strong Defensive team that can also score some points.

Stay tuned for updates as the week progresses.  Tonight’s game – Vikings at Rams – on Thursday Night Football should be a good one!

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2018 – Week 3 Predictions & Results [9/20-9/24]

[FINAL UPDATE – RESULTS ARE IN]

Week 3 of the 2018 NFL Season is in the books. And NFL Portfolio is still undefeated.    3-0. This wasn’t a route, and came down to the last game of the week. But a Win is a Win, and we’re establishing a good rhythm as we approach the season’s Quarter Point. Results below.
> Winnings: $10,600 
> W-L Record: 22-17-0 (56%) 
> 5* Plays: 13-11 (54%) 
> 4* Plays: 5-0 (100%) 
> Line Plays: 4-10 (29%) 
> Over/Under Plays: 11-2 (85%) 
> Special Plays: 7-5 (58%) 

[UPDATE #1 – POST Thursday Night Football]

Tonight’s Game Plays:
Prediction — Browns 17-14 // Actual: Browns 21-17
Plays:
1) Browns/Jets Under-40 @ 5* (WIN +$5,000)
2) Jets +3.5 @ 3* (LOSS -$1,100)
3) Browns/Jets Under-50 in 3-Team Teaser @ 5* (WON 1 of 3 Elements; Others TBD)
4) Jets +13.5 in 3-Team Teaser @ 4* (WON 1 of 3 Elements; Others TBD)

Nice start! Go Premium to get the rest of Week 3 Picks before Sunday’s 1pm EST Kick-offs!

I’ve got 38 allocations or “Plays” for Week 3, across 16 games, that kick-off tonight with Jets at Browns on Thursday Night Football.

Some other key stats about this week’s picks, which all Premium Subscribers are receiving just about now.

  1. 56% of picks (24 of them) are 5* Graded / 12% on 4* // 21% on 3* // 7% on 2* // 5% on 1*
  2. 14 Line Plays, 13 Total Plays and 11 Special Plays (Teasers)
  3. Fairly even between Favorites (9) and Underdogs (7)
  4. Same split between Home Teams (9) and Visitors (7)
  5. Same split between Overs (9) and Unders (7)
  6. Predicting 45.7 average points per game.  Actuals for Week 2 was 46.3 and Week 1 was 47.8; games are generally higher scoring than last season, presumably due to the new rules promoting Offense and protecting Quarterbacks.

For those of you who aren’t yet on that list, I’ll throw out my Lock of the Week (disclaimer: there really are no “locks” and betting on any one game is essentially a coin toss; this system works over time, on small percentage odds and with a lot of games for ammunition).  That said, Lock of the Week is the Jaguars (-6.5) at home versus their division rival Titans.

Enjoy Week 3!